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Unforeseen and substantial global increase in water usage and agricultural land raises concerns
Can the world succeed in becoming more efficient with water and food resources, ensuring ample supply for nature's sustenance by 2050? No, according to recent research conducted by Wageningen University & Research. The study reveals that from 2000 to 2020, considerably more agricultural land was required than initially anticipated, resulting in profound depletion of water reserves. Compared to envisioned scenarios for water and agriculture, the world is on a trajectory towards the most dire conceivable outcome. Anticipated enhancements in international trade, rain-dependent farming, and irrigated agriculture have not been realized. Who bears the immediate consequences? Primarily, the environment, with diminished forests, dwindling rivers, and diminishing natural habitats. Moreover, the most impoverished suffer, as disappointing yields and reduced grain trade contribute to escalated food costs.
The point of departure for this study was the publication 'Water for Food Water for Life.' This influential work from 2007, akin to the IPCC climate reports, demonstrated that producing sufficient sustenance by 2050 without a significant escalation in water consumption and agricultural land was feasible. This would entail optimizing international trade and rain-dependent agriculture, along with limited expansion in irrigation.
To assess potential improvements, researchers from Wageningen University & Research collaborated with international water and agriculture organizations (IRRI, IWMI, IIASA, IHE Delft). They employed national agricultural data (collected by the FAO) to gauge global advancements. The study elucidates that anticipated progress in international trade and rain-dependent farming has faltered. In the world's major cereal-producing regions (Europe, North America, Australia, South America, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe), there has been a decline in agricultural land, paradoxically in climates with adequate water for cereal production for other regions (Africa, Middle East, Eastern Asia).
Furthermore, Africa has not realised the envisaged increases in grain production per hectare, leading to a substantial expansion of agricultural land that directly encroaches upon natural ecosystems. Irrigation has escalated far more swiftly than anticipated in the publication, thereby contributing to expedited depletion of water reserves.
The trends spanning 2000-2020 thus illustrate that anticipated enhancements have fallen short. The world is headed towards the direst conceivable scenario, where water consumption and agricultural land will double by 2050 in comparison to 2000, directly jeopardizing land and water designated for nature.
Despite these somber findings, there is yet hope, as water can be harnessed in diverse ways. Chris Seijger, Assistant Professor of Agricultural Water Management and lead author of the research, states: 'It is imperative that we adopt a radically different approach to water utilisation, focusing on reducing agricultural land and preserving nature. Consuming less meat, curbing food wastage, achieving stable production across multiple seasons, and increasing the use of nutritious food crops are essential steps to reverse this trend.'"