Project
Shifting Production Zones
Climate change is projected to affect the agricultural sector, altering regional crop growing conditions and pest incidence. Although global aggregate agricultural production is not projected to decline before 2050, production zones will shift, yields will become more variable, with potential increasing price volatility of agricultural commodities.
This will affect cultivation patterns, trade and markets. While Europe is, by and large, self-sufficient in terms of cereals and vegetables, the supply of imported tropical products, vegetable oils and proteins, and other commodities for animal feed and food processing is vulnerable, either because production is concentrated in relatively few countries, or because of vulnerability to climate change or a combination of both.Trade diversification, through either trading with more countries or diversifying the import portfolio, could reduce the risk of supply disruptions.
This, however, is not applicable to all commodities and relies on private action rather than public policy. Another option could be to reduce the risk of foreign supply by increasing domestic (EU) production. Public policy can help to avoid supply risks by reducing demand for vulnerable produce altogether, which is opportune for products associated with high environmental pressures. More support for international adaptation to climate change is needed, particularly capacity building in producing countries.