Project

Nutrient Export by Rivers to Coastal Waters of China: An Integrated Modelling Approach

Rivers like the Chang Jiang, Huanghe, Zhujiang, Haiho, Hun and Huai transport increasing amount of nutrients (e.g. nitrogen, phosphorus) to coastal waters of China due to the rapid population growth and human activities on land (Yan et al., 2010; Shen and Kroeze, 2007; Qu and Kroeze, 2010). As a result, eutrophication occurs along the coastal waters of the Yellow Sea, East-South Sea and Bohai Gulf in China. Recent modelling studies (Qu and Kroeze, 2012) indicate that river export of nutrients may increase in the coming decades causing severe eutrophication problems along the Chinese coastal zones.

In October 2012, Peking University of China (PKU) and Wageningen University (WU) started a joint PhD research on river export of nutrients to coastal waters of China.

Objective

The main research objective is to explore trends in nutrient export by rivers to coastal waters of China. This will be done by developing and applying an integrated nutrient model aimed at identifying effective management strategies to deal with nutrient inputs in rivers and the coastal waters of China. We also aim to develop an appropriate indicator for assessing eutrophication in rivers and coastal waters and apply it to Chinese river basins.

Methodology

We use the Global NEWS (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model as a starting point. This model quantifies river export of different nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, carbon, silica) in different forms (dissolved inorganic, dissolved organic, particulate) for the past (1970, 2000) and the future (2030, 2050) years. The model allows to identify main drivers and sources of nutrient enrichments in coastal waters (Mayorga et al., 2010; Seitzinger et al., 2010). Future estimations are based on the four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios (Alcamo et al., 2005).

We will develop and apply a Chinese version of the Global NEWS model. This model will estimate export of different nutrients in different forms to rivers and coastal waters for past, present and future years taking into account sub-basin characteristics, main drivers and human activities. The newly developed model will be validated based on available measurements. A sensitivity analysis will be carried out to determine factors influencing nutrient export to rivers and coastal waters. A scenario analysis will be done to identify effective management strategies to deal with nutrients in rivers and coastal waters of China.

We plan to develop an indicator for eutrophication based on the ICEP (Indicator for Coastal Eutrophication Potential) by accounting for ICEP for rivers (ICEPriver). The current indicator was proposed by Billen and Garnier (2007) and aims to determine the potential of rivers to cause coastal eutrophication (Garnier et al., 2010).

PhD Candidate dr. M (Maryna) Strokal MSc

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Promotor prof.dr. C (Carolien) Kroeze

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Project information

Nutrient Export by Rivers to Coastal Waters of China: An Integrated Modelling Approach

Status:: Completed
Start project:: Oct 1, 2012
End project:: Sep 30, 2016

Client(s):: NWO and MoST

Partners

Environmental Systems Analysis

Peking University of China (PKU)

More information

Nutrient export by rivers to the coastal waters of China: management strategies and future trends (pdF)
Nutrient Export by Rivers to Coastal Waters of China: An Integrated Modeling Approach (NWO website)

Literature

Alcamo J., Van Vuuren D., Cramer W., Alder J., Bennett E., Carpenter S., Christensen V., Foley J., Maerker M., Masui T., Morita T., O’Neill B., Peterson G., Ringler C., Rosegrant M., Schulze K., Bouwman L., Eickhoudt B., Floerke M., Lal R. and K. Takahashi (2005) Changes in ecosystem services and their drivers across the scenarios. Chapter 9 in: Carpenter S., Pingali P.L., Bennett E.M., Zurek M.B. (eds.) Ecosystems and human well-being: Scenarios, Volume 2: Findings of the Scenarios Working Group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Island Press, Washington, Covelo, London, 297-373.

Billen G., and J. Garnier (2007) River basin nutrient delivery to the coastal sea: assessing its potential to sustain new production of nonsiliceous algae. Mar. Chem., 106: 148–160, doi:10.1016/j.marchem.2006.12.017.

Garnier J., Beusen A., Thieu V., Billen G. and L. Bouwman (2010) N:P:Si nutrient export ratios and ecological consequences in coastal seas evaluated by the ICEP approach. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 24, GB0A05, doi:10.1029/2009GB003583.

Mayorga E., Seitzinger S.P., Harrison J.A., Dumont E., Beusen A.H.W., Bouwman A.F., Fekete B.M., Kroeze C. and G. Van Drecht (2010) Global Nutrient Export from WaterSheds 2 (NEWS 2): Model development and implementation. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25(7): 837-853, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.01.007.

Qu H.J. and C. Kroeze (2010) Past and future trends in nutrients export by rivers to the coastal waters of China. Science of The Total Environment 408: 2075-2086.

Qu H.J. and C. Kroeze (2012) Nutrient export by rivers to the coastal waters of China: management strategies and future trends. Regional Environmental Change 14: 153-167.

Seitzinger S.P., Mayorga E., Bouwman A.F., Kroeze C., Beusen A.H.W., Billen G., Van Drecht G., Dumont E., Fekete B.M., Garnier J. and J.A. Harrison (2010) Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 24, GB0A08, doi:10.1029/2009GB003587.

Shen M. and C. Kroeze (2007) Future trends in emissions of pollutants from the Yangtze River basin, China. Environmental Sciences. 4(4):229 - 247.

Yan W., Mayorga E., Li X., Seitzinger S.P. and A.F. Bouwman (2010) Increasing anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine DIN exports from the Changjiang River basin under changing human pressures. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 24, GB0A06, doi:10.1029/2009GB003575.