Boreal forests may be on the verge of contraction

Boreal forests are expected to move northwards due to climate warming as trees may be able to grow into areas that were previously too cold for them. At the same time, the climate may become too warm and dry in the southern parts of the boreal forest distribution where boreal trees have evolved under cold conditions. “The rates at which these two processes happen is key. The southern boreal may lose trees much faster than the northern boreal gains trees through expansion,” says Ronny Rotbarth, lead author and PhD candidate at Wageningen University & Research. “Such a mismatch would indicate a contraction of the biome.”

Tracking forests from space

The research team used 20 years of tree cover data from satellites across the North American boreal biome to observe the change in tree cover along a south-to-north gradient. Over this period, forests became denser in the central boreal and thinner in the southern boreal. The researchers found a mismatch between high tree cover losses in the south and low tree cover gains in the north. “We were surprised by the clear patterns that emerged moving from south to north. They indicate that boreal forests are shifting northwards, and they seem to do it while contracting in the south,” adds co-author Marten Scheffer, a professor of complex systems at Wageningen University & Research. The researchers also compared how forests changed under the influence of fire and timber logging. Both disturbances amplified tree cover losses more significantly in the southern boreal, where forests are already stressed due to warming.

Boreal forests and the climate

Boreal forests are of global importance, as they store large amounts of carbon in the biomass of trees and in the soil. A long-term contraction of the biome may release a part of this carbon pool, which could further increase global warming. “We do not expect that the forest dynamics we observed will slow down. On the contrary, warmer temperatures will increase forest fires and insect outbreaks, intensifying the loss of forests in today’s southern ranges,” says Milena Holmgren, co-author and Associate Professor at Wageningen University & Research. Knowledge about the future health of boreal forests could help to anticipate the impacts of forest changes on global climate. Jane Jepsen, a researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research and involved in the study: “Boreal forests are sentinels of change also affecting arctic and temperate ecosystems. Continental-scale biome shifts, such as the one documented by us, highlight the urgent need for long-term monitoring, particularly at the edges of our major forest ecosystems.”