Climate change, adaptation and human security in the Mekong Delta

Background

Governments and academic communities are increasingly considering climate change and variability as a global security issue. Many researchers interested in this link tend to pay attention first to national and military dimensions of the security concept (e.g. Brown & Mcleman, 2009; Scott, 2009; Uexkull et al., 2016). In this sense, the climate security linkage is usually explored through the mechanism between climate change and armed conflicts related to state sovereignty and political stability (McDonald, 2013). Nevertheless, understanding the relationship between climate impacts and human security—“a condition in which people and communities have the capacity to respond to threats to their basic needs and rights, so that they can live with dignity” (O’Brien & Barnett, 2013, p. 375)— and the stage before the outbreak of open conflict, is equally important. Climate change and variability influence human security through a variety of pathways including undermining livelihoods, compromising culture and identity, and increasing migration (Adger et al., 2015). Climate change-induced human insecurity may in turn increase the risk of violent conflict (Barnett & Adger, 2007).

Several studies have explored direct and indirect links between conflict and climate (Hendrix & Salehyan, 2012; Buhaug et al., 2015; Freeman, 2017). Nevertheless, focusing on conflict tends to center the empirical research on conflict-prone areas. As a result, there is a lack of understanding of how climate variability and change impacts the security of people living in the absence of conflict. Adverse effects of climate change on human security could, however, lead to future conflicts, for example, by contributing to inequalities and grievances in a given area. In addition, the linkage between climate change and human security should also be addressed since it does not only focus on territorial sovereignty and political stability, but also people’s physical and material safety and dignity and, thus, provides insights into broader consequences of climate change on societal well-being.

To minimise the negative consequences of climate change and extreme weather events, different climate adaptation and mitigation strategies have been implemented at all levels from global, national to individual. Some literature points out that as climate adaptation policies are more broadly executed, it is also more likely to increase the risk of unintended adverse effects. A study conducted in Ethiopia, (Milman & Arsano, 2014), shows that implementing an adaptation program leads to contradictory impacts for human security; or migration as a climate adaptation strategy affects human security of migrants and increase the conflict risk in the destination area (Adger et al., 2021). Therefore, the climate change and human security connection also needs to take into account the impact of climate adaptation on different dimensions of human security and its implications for different groups in society.

Project description

My PhD research will rely on both quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the impact of climate change and adaptation measures on various aspects of human security and analyse the condition to which human insecurity might turn into conflict risk. Specifically, the study will explore the relationship between climate change impacts and human security in the context of the Mekong Delta. Deltas, characterised by biologically productive ecosystems that are beneficial to crop and aquacultural production, are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and extreme weather events such as sea-level rise, droughts, floods, typhoons, and salinity intrusion, causing severe human hardship (Seto, 2011). The Mekong Delta, located in Southern Vietnam and also the most downstream area of the Mekong River, is predicted to experience a warmer, wetter, and more volatile climate that poses potential economic and political challenges to local livelihoods (Lange & Jensen, 2013). Adverse climate events, especially droughts, intensify concerns over water security and may create tensions and conflicts among countries that are benefiting from the Mekong River. Furthermore, climate variability and extreme weather events, such as increasing temperature, salinity intrusion and floods, lower the agricultural productivity and incomes which lead to food insecurity in areas depending heavily on agricultural production (Buhaug et al., 2015; Koubi et al., 2020). To address these problems, different adaptive and mitigation strategies, including land-use change and infrastructure construction, are employed that would create favorable conditions for many groups but also sometimes exclude the improvement of others’ livelihood, and increase the conflict risk. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the impact of climate change and implications of adaptation strategies on human security in the Mekong Delta.

Objectives

The study aims to apply the human security lens to assess the impact of climate change and adaptation on farmer livelihoods in the Mekong Delta.

Specific research questions

• RQ1: What is the impact of climate change and adaptation strategies through human security lens?
• RQ2: What is the impact of climate adaptation measures on food and water dimensions of human security? A case study of planting date calendar in the Mekong Delta.
• RQ3: What is impact of intensive and extensive rice farm adaptations in salinity-prone areas of the Mekong Delta?
• RQ4: How do adaptation strategies affect community dimension of human security? A behavioural experiments in rice shrimp systems.
• RQ5: What is the linkage between climate change, human security and mobility in the Mekong Delta? A human security index approach.