Projects - Y (Yixuan) Zhou MSc

Integrated Modelling for Resilient Food and Water Systems under Climate Change

Increasing crop yields while preventing excessive irrigation and nutrient losses is a challenge for intensified agriculture. Water and nutrients limit crop yields in many regions of the world, while excessive fertilization and irrigation withdrawals have already threatened environmental sustainability in other places. Climate and socio-economic changes further alter water and nutrient demands and availability. However, the holistic impacts of agriculture practices on crop-water-nutrient interlinks under different conditions remain unclear. This research aims to address the limited understanding of the quantitative interactions between crop yields, nutrient losses, and irrigation demands as affected by climate change and agricultural practices. This will be achieved by incorporating nutrient fluxes into the crop model. The integrated model will be applied under different climate and socio-economic change scenarios to analyze trends and spatial distribution of future hotspots. Various challenges around crop production and (or) water and nutrient management will be identified for each hotspot type. The integrated model will also quantify the effectiveness of crop, nutrient, and water management and their interactions. Based on insights into crop-nutrient water interaction, and by bridging stakeholders’ requirements and modelling outputs in a selected study area, this project is expected to develop a conceptual framework to support cross-sectoral management around crop, nutrient and water issues under different conditions.