John Tang (University of Utrecht): "Superstition, fertility, and modernization: evidence from Japan".

Abstract:

Over the past one and a half centuries, Japanese demography trends have followed the typical pattern of a marked decrease in mortality followed by a decline in fertility as the economy developed. However, there are notable deviations from this pattern in particular years associated with superstitious beliefs. This paper examines fertility patterns between 1880 to 1980 and estimates the number of missing children due to adherence to superstition. Given significant spatial variation, the impact of economic development through medical services, education, and industrialization may mitigate the prevalence of superstitious belief across different regions in the country. I find that increased education attainment by women is correlated with lower fertility on average, but higher fertility in inauspicious years.