Rapportage modelinventarisatie voor klimaateffecten en adaptatie

Samenvatting

A review of models for monitoring current and future risks of climate change was carried out for seven Dutch ministries. The models are the existing climate and other models available at Wageningen University & Research (WUR) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) that can make projections of the risks of climate change to biodiversity, implementation of the Birds and Habitats Directives and the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the delivery of ecosystem services. This report explains what the current set of core models can do, the gaps in their coverage and how the further development of models could fill these gaps to produce a complete set of core models. The current set of models partially cover the core indicators of the risks of climate change to the chosen aspects of ecosystems and biodiversity. Further research is needed to identify possibilities for planned expansion of model coverage and for tailoring model development to meet the needs of the ministries.