Mitigating the effects of extreme weather on crop yields: insights from farm management strategies in the Netherlands

Samenvatting

Weather extremes can drive substantial crop losses. Farm-level management strategies play a critical role in mitigating the impacts of and consequences for farmer livelihoods and food security. While the impacts of extreme weather on crop yields are well documented in recent studies, these predominantly focused on expansive geographical scales and commonly overlooked the critical role of management practices in modulating the dynamics of weather-crop sensitivities. We fill this gap in the literature by using a unique dataset that explores the timely relationship between extreme weather and crop yields at farm level in the Netherlands. We cover 10 types of crops and elucidate the role of soil types, irrigation and nutrient application in modulating the relationship between extreme weather and crops, by estimating fixed-effects regression models. We show substantial impacts from drought during the growing- and harvesting period and excessive precipitation during the planting- and growing period. Severe droughts show significant (p≤0.05) reductions in yield for all crops, and lead to yield reductions up to 24 percent relative to average yields during the growing period. Meanwhile, eight crops show significant reductions in yield due to severe water excess during the planting period, with yield reductions up to 18 percent. Soils such as sand or loess amplify the negative impact of drought on crop yield, while softening the impact of excessive precipitation. Irrigation and to a lesser extent nutrient application are shown to moderately decrease the impact of extreme weather on crop yield. Our findings contribute valuable insights to guide local adaptation priorities which are critical given the projected increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather under climate change.