Potential medium-run impacts of the Russia-Ukrainian war on the Dutch agriculture and food system: an assessment

Samenvatting

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has consequences for agricultural production and food prices in the world, the EU, and in the Netherlands. This model-based scenario study quantifies the potential medium-term effects of the war on agricultural markets (prices) and agricultural production and food consumption in the Netherlands. The scenarios focus on the possible consequences of the decline in agricultural production in the Ukraine and also on the consequences of trade sanctions against Russia, and the related higher energy prices. According to the simulations carried out the medium-term direct consequences of the Ukraine war on production and consumption volumes in the Dutch agri-food sector are limited. This is despite the disruption to prices. When the effects of energy and fertiliser price increases on agricultural production and demand worldwide are taken into account, the consequences for the agricultural markets (prices) are greater, but a larger part of the input cost increases can also be compensated by increased output prices, so that still the effects for the Dutch agro sectors remain limited. The EU policy measure that allows for temporarily taking more land into production in EU agriculture has only a marginal effect.