Effecten van maatregelen in het Zevende Actieprogramma Nitraatrichtlijn : Milieueffectrapportage op planniveau

Samenvatting

In preparation of the Seventh Action Programme Nitrates Directive (2022-2025), an Environmental Impact Assessment at plan level (EIA) has been prepared, primarily assessing effects of measures on water quality. Special attention is paid to nitrate concentrations in the southern sand and loess area because the limit value of 50 mg L-1 for nitrate is exceeded in these areas on average. A first step in the calculation of effects is an assessment of the water quality in 2027 based on implemented policy measures and the expected development of the livestock population. According to this projection, the nitrate concentration in the southern sandy area will decrease by about 10 mg L-1 until 2027 as a result of measures taken in the 6th Action Programme. The effects of a reduction of fertilizer application, a broader crop rotation, the maximum application of catch crops and the establishment of fertilizer-free field margins were calculated with three different models. The reduction in nitrate concentration is calculated to be a few milligrams up to about 15 mg nitrate per liter under extreme assumptions. It is calculated that with the measures of the most far-reaching scenario the nitrate concentration in the southern sand area in 2027 will not exceed the limit value of 50 mg L-1, but is still exceeded in the loess area. Furthermore, it is calculated that on national average the nitrogen load on surface water from agricultural soils decreases by 6 - 13% and the phosphorus load by 1.2 – 4.4%. In a ‘Maximum Environmentally friendly Alternative’ scenario, just over 60% of WFD water bodies meet the nitrogen and phosphorus concentration standards in 2027. In 2027, a significant proportion of water bodies does not fully comply with standards for nutrient concentrations in surface water. The reduction in nutrient transport to surface water leads to a less than proportionate increase in the number of water bodies with a good quality status. Sustainable crop rotation schemes for arable crops on sandy and loess soils contribute to improving water quality. Their implementation has major implications for practice. Effects of the measures on emissions of ammonia (NH3), nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and on improving biodiversity, the counteraction of desiccation and the reduction of flooding have been estimated based on expert judgement. The impacts of the possible measures are expected to be small (on a national scale).