Project

From the Third Pole to the Sea: impacts of melting glaciers and snowpacks on downstream water and food security

What does the melting of glaciers and snowpacks in the High Mountains of Asia mean for one of the largest food producing areas in the world, that depends on these glaciers and snowpacks for its water supply? This is the main question that we aim to answer in the 3POLE2SEA project.

Introduction

The high mountain ranges in South Asia (a.o. the Hindu Kush, Himalayas, Karakoram) are often called ‘the Third Pole’, because of the enourmous volumes of water stored in glaciers and snowpacks. Almost 2 billion people live in twelve large river basins that are fed with meltwater from these mountains. In addition, the meltwater is used to irrigate an enourmous area of cropland located on the fertile floodplains of these rivers. This makes the the ‘Third Pole’ a very important water reserve on which both water- and foodsecurity for a huge population heavily depend.

However, the glaciers and snowpacks of the Third Pole are melting at unprecedented rates, and large parts of the frozen water reservoirs will have disappeared by the end of the 21st century due to climate change. In addition, changes in (monsoon) precipitation, socio-economic and land use changes, and continuing groundwater depletion will also affect water availability downstream.

While it is clear that water resources availability is changing, there is limited scientific understanding of where, when and how much downstream food production will be impacted by changing glacier and snow and melt dynamics in the Third Pole, and what adaptation strategies are possible.

Objective

In this research project we aim to increase the understanding of the links between the water stored in the High Mountains of Asia and the water- and food security of the 1.9 billion people living in the areas downstream of those mountains, now and in the future, and use this understanding to support adaptation design.

Method

We will develop new models and methods to quantify upstream-downstream links and associated risks for all river basins that are fed by glacier- and snowmelt from the Third Pole. The results will advance science and inform policy makers and water managers on how to make agriculture in one of the largest food producing areas in the world more resilient to changes in the mountains.

The river basins that originate from the ‘Third Pole’ including their downstream areas and human activities, illustrating the complexity of these water systems (green: irrigated areas, blue: irrigation canals, purple: dams and reservoirs, red: large cities)
The river basins that originate from the ‘Third Pole’ including their downstream areas and human activities, illustrating the complexity of these water systems (green: irrigated areas, blue: irrigation canals, purple: dams and reservoirs, red: large cities)

(Expected) results

This project will result in a collection of scientific and policy relevant deliverables that will help to better understand the risks associated with changing upstream-downstream linkages, and contribute towards achieving water- and food security for almost 2 billion people in Asia.