Environmental analysis of future scenarios of circularity in north-Netherlands

Background

Food systems are important contributors to land use change, biodiversity loss, climate change, the exhaustion of limited resources and the loading of the environment with nutrients. The concept of circular agriculture has been proposed as an alternative to the current linear food systems, which follow an ‘extract-consume-discard’ model. A circular food system is a system in which resources and ecosystems are safeguarded, unnecessary consumption and losses are avoided, food production is prioritised over feed production, unavoidable residual flows are recycled and energy use is minimised. By adhering to these principles the impacts of food systems can, in theory, be reduced. However, there is no blueprint for a circular food system and many unknowns remain, including the feasibility and consequences of circular food systems on different spatial scales.

Project description

In this project we quantified the status quo of nutrient circularity in the north Netherlands (NN) region, by quantifying all major nitrogen and phosphorus flows and losses associated with agriculture, food processing, consumption and waste processing. We are currently assessing the potential for a circular food system in NN and the impacts on land use in the region. Using model simulations we assess how land use is affected by the spatial scale at which the circular system is organised (regional, national, supranational), the reservation of land for nature conservation and the cultivation of crops for the biobased economy. In the next step of the project we will quantify the environmental trade-offs, such as greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient use and emissions, associated with various scenarios for circular food systems.

Results

So far we found that the current food system in NN is strongly linear. Agricultural production in the region is high, but strongly depends on the import of feed and fertilisers and is associated with significant losses to the environment (Figure 1; 252 kg N ha-1 y-1). The nutrient use efficiency of the food system is low, and recycling is very limited.

Within the region, nutrient flows, efficiencies and losses vary significantly with changes in soil type, agricultural specialisation and population density (Figure 2).

This shows that increasing the circularity of the food system as a whole requires locally specific interventions. Increasing the circularity of the system would require the reduction of external inputs such as feed and fertilisers, matching production to food demand and the recovery of nutrients from residual flows. A circular food system in the region is possible and feeding the region’s population would require less than a fifth of the current agricultural area. In a simulated Dutch circular food system the NN region provides food for the urban areas of the country and just under half of the current agricultural area in NN is used. This means that a significant land area could be dedicated to the production for international markets, nature conservation or production for the biobased economy. The trade-offs associated with different land use options are now being quantified.