‘An important step’: Wageningen scientists react to outcome of COP28

‘I met a lot of inspired people in Dubai, people who really want to act’, says Tim van Hattum, programme leader Green Climate Solutions. ‘The 198 countries took an important step towards phasing out fossil energy. The final statement contains an agreement to triple the world’s generation of renewable energy and to reduce fossil fuel subsidies. The latter does not set a specific target, though.

Food systems and nature-based solutions

Moreover, Van Hattum noticed an important development in Dubai: typical WUR themes like nature-based solutions and resilient food systems keep getting more and more attention. ‘At one of the events, this was the quote of the day: “Without transforming the food system, even a full transition to sustainable energy would not suffice to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.” So there is an increasing realization that the role of food systems is absolutely crucial.’ This role was even included in the final statement, albeit without concrete goals or agreements.

‘The relation between climate change and biodiversity was also much discussed’, adds Van Hattum. A lot of attention was paid to nature-based solutions, which play an important part in both climate mitigation (such as the capture of CO₂) and climate adaptation. ‘Together with various other organizations, including the WWF, WUR urged countries to speed up nature-based solutions around the world and to make public and private financing available.’

A milestone

Political scientist Sylvia Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen also attended the summit, where she studied the political dynamics of negotiations between countries. ‘Considering every single country had to agree to this text, including all big oil and gas exporting countries, this is a landmark text’, says Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen. She agrees with Van Hattum that the emphasis on nature is another positive outcome of COP28: ‘The text is strong on addressing climate change through protecting and regenerating nature.’

Furthermore, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen considers the adoption of the outcome of the Global Stocktake to be an important milestone in the process of moving towards the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Global Stocktake is a process in which countries take stock of their progress in implementing climate action. ‘This adoption provides vital guidance for countries on what they need to do in the coming years in terms of reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.’

Wait for Brazil

PhD researcher Max van Deursen reported from Dubai that the summit yielded important results. ‘One of the achievements of this COP is that the countries agreed to set up a loss and damage fund. This was achieved on the very first day of the conference. I’ve never seen that before.’ The purpose of the loss and damage fund is to help developing countries cope with the effects of climate change. However, Van Deursen has his doubts about whether the outcome of the summit will be translated into action.

Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen agrees that the main question now is whether agreements on paper will lead to climate gains in practice. ‘By early 2025 and at COP30, which will be held in Brazil later that year, we will have a first glimpse of whether countries paid serious attention to the outcome adopted today.’