Agriculture and climate change: what is still possible in the future?

Drought in the Netherlands is no longer unique. Over the past ten years, we have frequently experienced long periods of drought, especially during the summer. We are now also seeing another consequence of climate change: heavy downpours and prolonged periods of rain. Both weather extremes have significant consequences for farmers, explains Knol. “Due to drought, crops in some regions or during certain periods receive only limited irrigation, which can lead to reduced yields or even crop failures. Likewise, heavy rainfall can damage crops. Furthermore, a wet period might mean that farmers are forced to begin sowing later or to harvest crops earlier. Using heavy machinery on waterlogged fields can also lead to soil compaction.”

What is still possible, and what is no longer feasible?

Drought creates particular challenges on sandy soils, Knol explains. “On such soils, water flows more easily into the subsoil than it does on clay soils, which means that the water is lost more quickly. On the other hand, clay soils tend to retain water longer after heavy rainfall. Each region, therefore, faces its own challenges. Along the coast, there is also the problem of salinisation as a result of rising sea levels and drought. A recent study by WUR indicates that the impact of climate change on agriculture is only going to increase. We will have to carefully assess what remains feasible in each area. The number of suitable locations for the current cultivation of crops will continuously shrink, and sometimes crop cultivation will need to be relocated. This is already happening – for example, salinisation is causing onion cultivation to shift from the west to the east of the Netherlands.”

Impact at the business level

As a Climate Resilient Agriculture researcher, Knol assists farmers in addressing the challenges posed by climate change in various ways. For instance, she collaborates with stakeholders such as LTO (the agricultural association) and financial institutions on a Climate Stress Test, a tool that clarifies the risks and impacts of climate change at the farm level. “A farmer enters the number of hectares and the types of crops grown, after which the tool displays the financial consequences of taking no measures. Economic and climatological models underpin this calculation. Initially, the test is primarily designed to highlight the urgency of climate change. Following this, a fact sheet appears with possible measures, such as water storage around the fields, the use of techniques like precision irrigation, or the cultivation of alternative, more climate-resilient crops. This information then forms the basis for a discussion with an adviser.”

Learning from other countries

Due to the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, the climate in the Netherlands is beginning to resemble that of Southern European countries, Knol observes. “In Spain and southern France, for example, farmers are already accustomed to prolonged periods of drought. Other nations can learn from their experiences. In the European project Climate Farm Demo, we are sharing knowledge and experiences. Around 1,500 demo farms are involved, including 60 from the Netherlands. We organise, for example, demonstrations on water management and soil quality in the context of climate adaptation and mitigation. Healthy soil with high organic matter content is more resilient to extreme weather events. The project is also designed to show farmers what to expect in terms of future climate conditions. By examining conditions in Southern Europe, farmers in the Netherlands and Germany can gain insights into what the future might hold, enabling them to prepare accordingly.”

A future from various perspectives

The future is not only being illuminated by looking at other countries but also by developing future scenarios. This is taking place in the Agriculture Climate 2050 project. Knol explains, “The input from various stakeholders - including agricultural and horticultural businesses, governmental bodies, nature conservation and civil society organisations - forms the basis for these scenarios. We are assessing, from multiple perspectives, what different climate trends mean for the way the next generation of farmers can practise climate smart agriculture. One perspective concerns which crops will remain feasible, another focuses on water management strategies to sustain crop production, and a third considers the relationship between agriculture and nature or urban areas. Based on these future visions, we are determining the steps that farmers and other stakeholders need to take on the path to 2050.”

Struggles with an economic challenge

Climate measures have different impacts depending on factors such as region, soil type and quality, the crops grown, and the farm type, notes Knol. “It will always require a combination of actions—there is no silver bullet. However, the fact remains that if farmers do nothing, the likelihood of their business surviving into the future is unsure. I observe many farmers grappling with the economic dilemma of deciding whether to invest in measures such as underground water storage or to experiment with a blueprint for a new type of crop. Due to these dilemmas, many measures are currently implemented on an ad hoc basis. In times of drought, an extra piece of equipment may suddenly need to be acquired; similarly, extreme rain often necessitates immediate and varied responses. Yet these short-term fixes do not ultimately render the farm’s climate resilience in the long term.”

Not just a challenge for farmers

Finally, Knol stresses that making agriculture climate smart is not solely the responsibility of farmers. “It is a multi-stakeholder issue. It is not just about a few measures on the farm, but about organising the entire surrounding environment. Retaining water in the subsoil, ditches, and streams requires close cooperation with other parties such as water authorities, the province, and nature conservation organisations. We endeavour to involve these parties as much as possible in our projects, for instance, through workshops and discussions. Fortunately, we see a great willingness to collaborate on regional planning among these groups. Everyone benefits from a resilient environment. We hope to reinforce that development with our knowledge and tools.”