Thesis subject

MSc thesis topic: Exploring agro-ecological intensification in topical agricultural landscapes through agent-based modelling: the case of semi-arid Burkina Faso

Agro-ecological intensification as a strategy towards increased sustainability and resilience has become increasingly popular. Efficient use of nutrients and closing of nutrient cycles at farm, village ore landscape scales is often a key element of this approach. While the production and environmental side of the system is often quite well understood and explored in computer simulations by agronomists, decision-making processes are often not or very limited included in such models. While at the same time many behavioural decision-making theories are available in social sciences literature.

Explorative agent-based simulation models are well-suited to link the biophysical and the social part of a system to explore what-if scenarios in complex landscapes where a multitude of individuals make decisions based on, amongst others, the biophysical status of their farm land, the expected returns of farm management decisions and the interactions with peers.

For this thesis topic, we are aiming for the further development of an agent-based model (Assogba et al., 2023). The current model has a comprehensive simulation of the farming system at plot, farm and landscape level. It simulates a virtual diverse agro-ecosystem based on an actual landscape in Burkina Faso. Human decision-making is currently largely based on empirical data and probabilities. By developing a theory based decision-making module for the current ABM, a wide range of interesting research questions could be explored. These questions could be linked to “diffusion of innovation theory” (Rogers), the role of network structure on landscape dynamics, exploring the potential impact of collaboration among farmers or a qualitative validation of such ABMs to mention a few.

Objectives

  • Select a relevant behavioural decision-making theory and implement it in the model
  • Perform a sensitivity analysis of the developed model
  • To identify, explore and analyse the impacts of different management options on social, ecological and economic performance of the landscape at different
  • Develop and explore relevant scenarios with the model

Literature

  • Assogba, G. G. C., Adam, M., Berre, D., and Descheemaeker, K. (2022). Managing biomass in semi-arid Burkina Faso: Strategies and levers for better crop and livestock production in contrasted farm systems. Agricultural Systems 201, 103458. 10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103458.
  • Jager, W., Janssen, M. A., & Viek, C. (2001). Experimentation with household dynamics: the consumat approach. International Journal of Sustainable Development, 4(1), 90-100.

Requirements

  • Interest and some experience in agent based modelling (in particular Netlogo)
  • Interest in behavioural decision-making theories

Theme(s): Modelling & visualisation; Human – space interaction