Summer school
Risk Analysis, Risk Management, and Resilience in Agriculture - 3 ECTS
The farm sector is increasingly affected by a large set of shocks and risks, including volatile input and producer prices, extreme weather patterns, imbalances in upstream and downstream market power, increased dependency on financial institutions, and (geo)political uncertainty. The importance of risk management and resilience has therefore increased in recent revisions of the Common Agricultural Policy. This context of increased risk, highlights the importance of properly characterizing and analysing risk, the need for adaptive risk management tools, and novel ways of ensuring resilience.
Objectives
Participants will learn about and apply the major theories concerning risk analysis, risk coping strategies and resilience, and will be supported in developing their own research in topics related to risk in agriculture. The course deals with both conceptual and methodological issues, and presents various empirical applications with data and code.
Target group and learning outcomes
The course is graduate-level, oriented towards PhD students, postdoctoral researchers and others with a background in agricultural and applied economics.
After successful completion of this course, students are expected to be able to:
- Understand theories underlying risk measurement, risk management decision making, and resilience.
- Critically assess econometric analyses with regards to risk and risk management.
- Undertake empirical projects on risk and resilience in agriculture.
- Reflect on current (EU) policy developments with regard to risk management and resilience.
Assumed prior knowledge:
Before the start of the course students are required to have a basic understanding of statistics (Appendix A, B, and C from Wooldridge, 2015), econometrics (Chapters 1 and 2 from Wooldridge, 2015) and mathematical notation (Appendix D and E from Wooldridge, 2015). Further reading on Limited Dependent Variables Models (Chapter 17 from Wooldridge, 2015) and Panel Data Models (Chapters 13 and 14 from Wooldridge, 2015) is optional but highly suggested. We will work primarily with the software package R. In order to get familiar with this software, please have a look at this introduction page for R.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2015). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. Nelson Education.
Session Times
The course consists of theory and method sessions, divided in interactive plenary and breakout sessions for the presentation of theoretical aspects and practical sessions to provide exposure to analytical exercises, simulations, and econometric estimations. Practical sessions will include applications of the theory, computer analyses with actual data sets, and interpretations in practice.
Outline of the course in hours
The course will involve daily sessions in which sessions on theory (3 hours, mornings) are alternated with practical sessions (4 hours, afternoons). During the practical sessions, open ended questions will be formulated that need to be completed in order to pass the course.
Course schedule
| Day | Morning | Afternoon | Evening |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 23 June | 9.00-10.00 Introduction | 13.00-15.00 Utility Theory | 17.30 Joint dinner |
| 10.00-12.00 Risk Theories | 15.00-17.00 Simulation and optimisation under risk | ||
| Day 2 24 June | 9.00-10.00 Behavioural economics | 13.00-15.00 Risk attitudes | |
| 11:00-12:00 An application of Prospect Theory | 15.00-17.00 Behavioural economics | ||
| Day 3 25 June | 9.00-10.30 Measures of risk | 13.00-15.00 Risk measures | |
| 10.30-12.00 Production risk | 15.00-17.00 Production risk | ||
| Day 4 26 June | 9:00-12:00 Risk Management | 13.00-16.00 Risk Management | |
| 16.00-17.00 Uptake of risk management tools | 17.15 Informal drinks | ||
| Day 5 27 June | 9.00-12.00 From risk management to resilience | 13.30-16.00 Resilience measures | |
| 16.00-17.00 Closing speach: State of the art & outlook |
Course materials
Reading materials prepared by the authors will be sent to participants in advance of the course. Articles and other accompanying materials will be distributed during the course.
Requirements and ECTS
Before the start of the course, participants submit a short document (max 1 page) about their research with a particular focus on the role of risk therein (send to yann.demey@wur.nl before 18 June 2025). During the course, participants will answer open questions at the end of each day. Completion of these 5 assignments is required to be eligible for the 3 credits (according to ECTS).
Course fees
| WGS PhDs with TSP | € 300 |
| a) All other PhD candidates b) Postdocs and staff of the above mentioned Graduate Schools | € 640 |
| All others | € 900 |
Daily coffee breaks and lunch, and the welcome dinner + social drinks are included in the course fees.